Many Agile teams often say, we’re really bad at estimating. They know estimation is important for sprint planning, but they struggle to make it accurate. The common mistake? Teams believe they can get better just by trying harder. But simply trying harder doesn’t work just like you can’t win more chess games by effort alone without improving your strategy. Estimation is a skill, and like any skill, it improves when you understand your weaknesses and use better techniques.
Here are 7 practical tips to help your team estimate story size more accurately without frustration.
Agree on the Type of Estimate
One big reason teams disagree in estimation sessions is that they’re not aligned on the type of estimate they’re giving. For example: One member might be thinking of the best-case scenario. Another might be thinking of the safest, most conservative estimate. This mismatch creates endless debates. To fix this, teams should agree on a common standard. The median estimate (where the chances of finishing earlier or later are equal) works best for most teams. Once everyone is on the same page, conflicts reduce, and estimates become more consistent.
Use Relative Estimation by Analogy
Instead of asking, how long will this take? A better question is what is this similar to? This is called relative estimation. It’s faster and more accurate because teams compare new backlog items with previously completed ones. Example: If installing an oven was estimated as 2 story points, and a new task feels four times larger, then it can be marked as 8 points. This saves time because the team doesn’t have to break down every detail. Over time, as more stories are estimated, the process becomes even smoother.
Keep Estimates Within One Order of Magnitude
Humans are better at estimating small ranges (like 1–10) than large ranges. That’s why tools like Planning Poker use small numbers such as 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, and 13. If you jump directly from estimating tasks at “5” to something at “100,” accuracy drops. Instead, build gradually estimate tasks within 1–10. Then slowly move up to 20 or 40 if needed. Or better yet, break very large items into smaller stories. Smaller estimates = more accuracy.
Avoid Being Too Precise
Agile estimation isn’t about calculating exact numbers. If your team is arguing whether a story is 3.47 points or 3.89 points, you’re overthinking. Instead, use predefined buckets like the Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13). Then ask if this story belongs in the 5 bucket or the 8 bucket? Think of it like ordering pizza. You don’t need 15 different sizes, you just pick small, medium, or large. Similarly, in Agile, round up when in doubt. If unsure between 5 and 8, go with 8.
Triangulate Estimates
Triangulation means comparing the new story to two existing estimates one smaller and one larger. Example, if you think a new task might be 5 points, compare it against a 2-point story and an 8-point story. If it feels bigger than 2 but smaller than 8, then 5 is probably right. This simple comparison method helps the team validate and fine-tune estimates more confidently.
Avoid Anchoring
Anchoring happens when someone unintentionally influences estimates by saying things like, this should be quick or This one is small. These phrases bias the team, even subconsciously. That’s why Planning Poker works well: everyone reveals their estimates at the same time, reducing bias. As a Scrum Master, encourage neutral language during estimation. Don’t let product owners or managers set the tone by labeling stories before the team has discussed them.
Don’t Always Settle in the Middle
Teams often compromise by choosing the middle number when they can’t agree. For example, if half the team says 3 and the other half says 8, they might settle at 5 without further discussion. This isn’t always accurate. Instead, encourage the team to explain their reasoning. Why did some think it was 3? Why did others think 8? This conversation usually uncovers risks, hidden complexities, or missing details leading to a better estimate.
Estimation is challenging, but not impossible. By applying these 7 tips, agreeing on estimate types, using analogies, keeping ranges small, avoiding over-precision, triangulating, preventing anchoring, and avoiding lazy compromises, your team can estimate more confidently. With practice, teams see fewer debates, more reliable sprint commitments, and smoother delivery.
If you want to truly master estimation and Agile practices, training plays a huge role. HelloSM is recognized as the best Scrum training institute in Hyderabad. With expert trainers and practical sessions, HelloSM ensures professionals understand real-world estimation and Scrum practices in depth. No wonder it’s considered the best training institute in India for Agile learning.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do teams struggle with Agile estimation?
Teams often lack a shared understanding of estimation types, rely on exact numbers, or allow bias to affect discussions. Following structured techniques improves accuracy.
Should story points represent hours or effort?
Story points are not about hours. They represent relative effort, considering complexity, risk, and workload. This keeps estimates consistent across different skill levels.
Where can I learn practical estimation techniques?
You can join HelloSM the expert-led, hands-on agile and scrum training institute in Hyderabad.